A long time member of the CEN-TAPEDE has sent me the following. My comments
are below.
-----------------------------------------------
Hi, David!
Happy new year ...
While I agree with your advice, for someone with an American
spouse and especially dual citizen children (it's hard enough
for full US citizens to deal with local, state and federal gov't!),
in this new age we may have a new risk that those who don't
have children should consider, not taking US citizenship and
maybe even leaving before having to take permanent rez via
their US spouse (e.g., finish grad school, time out the L1B, etc.).
That's the possible return of the draft.
Even the Marines are seeing a recruiting shortfall when they
once had a waiting list.
A colleague at my new firm, I finally met after 18 months because
he was mobilized with the Oregon National Guard (and his photo
was seen in The Oregonian, wearing a black bullet-proof vest with
"McMinnville Sheriff" "POLICE" on the front and back, over his
khaki camo). Because he's in his mid-40's, but still under contract,
he agreed to be a recruiter in order to avoid another deployment.
Over a few lunches, he's leaked out these rumours and facts ...
1. If reactivated, the SSS will start with 20 year olds and go up
and down. But with the aging population, it will go up pretty
quickly and pull in a substantial number of people up to 30.
2. The Reserves are depleting and they can draft, rarely have.
Being second in line, they could sweep up people through 40.
3. The National Guard is seeing the same, but they come last.
They could sweep people up to age 50! (You may wind up
as a truck driver but a lot of Oregon Guards have been killed
by roadside bombs and in ambushes.)
This is no guarantee that the draft will happen, or that it will
take this form, but these are their expectations.
There are other risks, like an increased nationalist backlash
from another massive terrorist attack or greater/continued
job losses (real and perceived) and possible outlawing of
US citizens holding additional nationalities. Or if the debt
comes due and having a tax obligation anywhere in this
universe, their US taxes rising above Canada's and maybe
even Europe's. Actually, it was a former Chicago neighbour
who was a Ph.D. student of Robert Gordon at Northwestern
(Economics) and now working for Morgan Stanley in London
who mentioned that to me (not that it didn't strike me at some
point in time).
gld
=====================
david ingram replies:
Thanks Gary. I guess that the draft is not and has never been one of my
concerns. Indeed, Canada had a draft at one time. Coming from a military
family and having been a member of the Regina Rifles, I think that "every"
young person, male and female, should serve in the military for three years.
I also, of course, think that the children of Members of Congress and the US
Senate and State legislators should be serving as well.
However, I accept your comments about the draft. Back in the good old days,
I was a supporter of Cool Aid which was the end of the draft dodgers
underground railroad in Vancouver. A major part of it, Simon De Jong went
on to become the NDP member of Parliament for Regina East (remember the
Regina Rifles above) and the other went on to become the Deputy Warden at
Stoney Mountain Penitentiaryt in Manitoba.
I got started in this business of tax and immigration dealing with Americans
who were escaping the draft. I must have hired a dozen of them at the time
although I have lost touch with all but one and he was not a draft dodger,
he was an actual deserter.
However, I do not expect the draft to be a major problem for most of the
people on this list. They are mostly in their thirties, forties, or fifties
already. My experience has likely been over 500 people over the years who
came back to Canada, gave up their green cards by default and then wanted to
go back to the US ten years later and found it too difficult.
So I put it this way. I think there is better than a 50% chance that my 40
year old will want to go back to the US because his or her kids will be
there and mom wants to be closer to her grandkids.
I think the chance of his or her been drafted is in the none to 1%
statistic.
However, I am passing your comments on because I have found your comments
over the years to be very worthy of comment and very accurate and
thoughtful.
david
centapede at lists.centa.com wrote:
>QUESTION:
>
>I've been living in the US for about 8 years now as a resident, but retain
>my canadian citizenship. I originally moved to the states to be with my
>then fiance, now wife (american citizen). Since that time we have had two
>children together, and we are now considering returning to Canada.
>
>How long does it take for my wife and kids to immigrate to Canada, and can
>my wife return for a visit... this last is important as her mother is
>terminally ill.
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>david ingram replies:
>
>If you return to Canada without taking out your US citizenship "first" you
>will have made a big mistake. I can't count as high as the number of
people
>I know who have come back to Canada, lost their Green (resident alien) card
>and then wanted to go back and not been able to go.
>
>So, BEFORE you start in on the move to Canada bit, get the US passport
>first.
>
>Then you will have to sponsor your wife into Canada. Your children are
>already Canadian and you should start getting their Canadian Citizenship
>confirmed and Canadian and American passports now.
>
>
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